Russia's LNG Export Growth Limited by Sanctions and Global Volumes

Despite a relatively good year for Russian LNG exports, which have increased by 10% in the first seven months of this year compared to the same period in 2025, Russia's potential for future growth is limited. Ongoing Western sanctions and the looming ban on Russian LNG into the EU from next year are major concerns for the industry.

Russia has exported 19.6 million tons of LNG since the beginning of this year, with most of it coming from two non-sanctioned projects: Novatek's Yamal LNG in the north and Gazprom's Sakhalin-2 in the country's Far East. These projects have avoided US sanctions due to long-term supply contracts that were in place prior to Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

However, a coming wave of global volumes could erode Russia's market share, and questions linger about future demand in key markets like China. The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to put pressure on the Russian LNG industry, with Western countries imposing sanctions on Moscow.