Russia's Oil Exports Surge Amid Middle East Tensions

Russia's oil exports have surged to their highest level in over a month and a half, driven by increased tensions in the Middle East. According to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, overseas oil shipments rose to 3.71 million barrels per day in the four weeks through September 27.

The surge in prices pushed the value of these cargoes to almost the highest level since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with Moscow reaping the benefits of tensions in the region. However, this windfall is partially offset by a decline in oil-product supplies due to drone strikes that have disabled Russian oil refineries.

As a result, Moscow has been forced to redirect domestic oil for export, increasing supply volumes but also leading to shortages of key fuel types. The Kremlin has suspended overseas sales of most diesel fuel, which had averaged about 1 million barrels per day before the intensification of the strikes.

The value of Russian oil exports rose to $2.39 billion per week in the four-week average through September 27, with China and India remaining the largest buyers of Russian oil. The increase was driven by higher prices for Russia's main oil grades and a moderate increase in shipment volumes.