Russia’s Wheat Exports Plummet as Black Sea Routes Disrupted

Russia’s wheat exports via the Black Sea have dropped significantly, with Moscow struggling to compensate through alternative routes. In the second ten-day period of September, the country shipped only 347,000 metric tons of wheat, a steep decline from 1.3 million metric tons in the same period of 2025. The port of Novorossiysk, a key transit point, saw shipments plummet to 72,500 metric tons, down from 696,000 metric tons a year earlier.

In response, Russia is redirecting grain shipments to the Baltic Sea, northern ports, and the Far East. The “Ultramar” terminal in Ust-Luga has begun receiving grain, with September requests for rail delivery totaling about 260,000 metric tons. However, even at maximum capacity, this route can handle only about 500,000 metric tons per month, far less than the 60 million metric tons per year capacity of Russia’s southern ports.

Russia is also exploring exports via Murmansk, with Russian Railways approving the first shipment of 40,000 metric tons from the Stavropol Krai. However, the additional costs for this route amount to $18-25 per metric ton, totaling $720,000 to $1 million for a single shipment. Meanwhile, China has emerged as another export market, with the ‘New Overland Grain Corridor’ growing from 2.3 million metric tons in 2024 to 5.8 million metric tons in 2025.

According to the Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia cannot quickly replicate the scale of the Black Sea system due to limitations in railway infrastructure, grain elevators, and transshipment capacity. While alternative routes offer some relief, they cannot match the efficiency of the Black Sea corridor. Germany has urged Russia to lift the grain blockade, while India, Turkey, Egypt, and the U.S. have proposed solutions to the Black Sea crisis. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected proposals for a mutual ceasefire on energy facilities and Black Sea ships.