Russia's Wheat Prices May Plunge Further Amid Export Disruptions

Russia's wheat market is bracing for further declines in prices due to the ongoing issues with grain exports through the Azov-Black Sea basin. According to Vladimir Petrichenko, head of ProZerno, grain carryover stocks in MY 2026/27 could reach 28-34 million tons depending on developments in maritime logistics.

The Azov-Black Sea ports previously accounted for around 57% of Russia's grain exports, while another 27% was shipped through river ports and offshore transshipment. However, due to the ongoing conflicts, grain exports in July-September may total around 8.5 million tons compared with 14 million tons a year earlier.

This has led ProZerno to estimate that Russia may ship only around 39 million tons of grain this season, which is below the potential 59 million tons. Under an optimistic scenario, if Black Sea shipments begin to recover from early 2027, exports could rise to 45 million tons.

The wheat market is expected to be hit the hardest, with estimated wheat exports at 33 million tons compared with a potential 45-46 million tons, leaving a surplus of 22 million tons. This excess supply will put additional pressure on prices, which are already at RUB 10/kg for Class 3 wheat including VAT, or about $118/t.