Saudi Arabia Reaps $210 Billion Windfall as Iran Conflict Drags On

Amid the ongoing conflict between Iran and its adversaries, economist Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution argues that Saudi Arabia is emerging as the primary beneficiary. According to Brooks, the Kingdom's oil revenues have surged to $210 billion annually, up from $150 billion before the war. This windfall comes despite a temporary drop in exports to 4 million barrels per day at the height of the conflict, as higher oil prices more than offset the reduced volumes.

Brooks highlights that Saudi Arabia's nominal GDP averages around $1 trillion, making the oil revenue increase worth about 6% of GDP. He notes that the Kingdom's buffer is substantial: even at current export levels of 5.5 million barrels per day, Brent crude prices would need to fall below $75 for Saudi Arabia to see revenues dip below pre-war levels. Brent crude has risen 75% since early 2026, with recent spot prices exceeding Brooks's estimates, suggesting his projections may be conservative.

The economist supports the U.S. blockade on Iran, citing the collapse of the Iranian rial and the strategic importance of maintaining safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Brooks also points out that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have lobbied Washington to sustain the blockade, indicating their vested interest in prolonging the conflict. Meanwhile, U.S. military presence in the region has grown, with reports of additional troops and carrier strike groups deployed near Iran, as President Trump considers escalating the conflict post-midterms.

Brooks advises tracking three key indicators: Brent crude prices staying above $75, the recovery of Saudi export volumes, and whether the military buildup leads to strikes or a negotiated deal. The longer the conflict persists, he argues, the more it benefits Saudi Arabia's economic standing.