Saudi Arabia Reaps $60 Billion Windfall From Iran War

Saudi Arabia has emerged as a major beneficiary of the ongoing conflict with Iran, with its oil revenues skyrocketing from $150 billion pre-war to $210 billion annually. This $60 billion windfall represents roughly 6% of the kingdom's GDP, according to economist Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution. Brooks argues that higher oil prices have more than compensated for the drop in export volumes, which fell to as low as 4 million barrels per day at the height of the conflict but have since recovered to 5.5 million barrels per day.

Brooks notes that Brent crude would need to fall below $75 for Saudi Arabia to end up worse off than before the war. As of September 29, 2026, Brent crude settled at $113.96, up 27% over the past month and 75% since early 2026. The economist also highlights that the attack on the East-West pipeline gave a misleading impression of Saudi Arabia under pressure, as the pipeline bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and prevented exports from ever reaching zero.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump is considering escalating the conflict with Iran after the midterms, with reports indicating a potential deployment of an additional 10,000 troops and a third aircraft carrier to the region. The U.S. already has around 50,000 troops in the Middle East. Brooks supports the U.S. blockade on Iran, noting that the country's economy is imploding with its currency, the Rial, in freefall. However, he suggests that Saudi Arabia and the UAE should contribute more to the cost of ensuring safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

The longer the conflict lasts, the better it is for Saudi Arabia, according to Brooks. He advises tracking three key indicators: whether Brent crude stays above $75, whether Saudi export volumes keep recovering, and whether the military buildup ends in strikes or a negotiated deal.