Saudi Arabia's Dual-Chokepoint Trap Exposes Red Sea Risks

Saudi Arabia's western export corridor has become a hot zone for maritime incidents and threats. The country's East, West Pipeline, designed to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, has redirected crude exports through Yanbu on the Red Sea.

However, this move has transferred exposure to Bab al-Mandab, where missile attacks, unmanned systems, and coercive boarding tactics have already transformed merchant navigation. The resulting challenge is no longer confined to naval security but also affects Aramco's balance sheet, Saudi fiscal planning, Asian supply chains, European maritime policy, and the credibility of external deterrence.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that oil and petroleum-liquid flows through Hormuz fell from 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 4.9 million in the second quarter of 2026, while volumes through Bab al-Mandab increased from 5.4 million to 8.1 million barrels per day.