Saudi Economy Proves Resilient Amid Worst-Case Oil Export Scenario

A recent attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline has raised concerns about a potential dip in oil exports. To assess the impact, a stress test was conducted assuming zero oil exports for the remainder of 2026.

The test showed that Riyadh would lose approximately $75 billion in oil exports and around SAR 203 billion ($53.5 billion) in government oil revenue. However, Saudi Arabia's economy appears resilient enough to withstand this worst-case scenario.

The stress test assumed that the incremental fiscal shortfall would be financed entirely through additional government borrowing. The results showed a fiscal deficit approaching 8 percent of GDP, forcing difficult choices such as delaying capital projects and reprioritizing investments under Vision 2030.

Despite this, Riyadh has sufficient financial buffers, borrowing capacity, and relatively modest sovereign leverage to weather even this extraordinary shock.