Saudi Oil Exports Recover as Ship Traffic through Strait of Hormuz Dwindles
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly decreased since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28. Over the weekend, just a dozen commodity vessels transited the strait, down from 35 the prior weekend, according to shipping data.
Before the conflict started, the strait typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels per day, including tankers, gas carriers, bulkers, and container vessels. However, visible traffic through the strait has dwindled to a trickle, with only four vessels exiting the strait on Sunday, while another two small-sized oil tankers entered the Gulf.
Despite the disruptions, Middle Eastern producers continue to export oil on tankers traveling with their transponders off. Saudi crude exports have actually risen, recovering to over 4 million barrels per day in September after slumping to 2.4 million bpd in August, according to provisional data from Kpler.
JPMorgan analysts noted that Middle East oil flows remain surprisingly strong despite the disruption to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, with total oil flows averaging 17.1 million bpd over the past 10 days, just 6.1 million bpd below the 2025 average.