Saudi Oil Exports Soar Amid Bearish Differentials

Saudi oil exports have surged to their highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 8.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the week ending September 27.

This is bearish for crude differentials and should trigger a sell-off, but Iran's potential reaction makes bearish positioning risky nonetheless.

The attack on the East-West Petroline three weeks ago did not deter Saudi Arabia from increasing its oil production, which has reached 11.5 mb/d and may test 12 mb/d in the coming days, a level last seen in April 2020.

Aramco has been pushing volumes east, with all six Juaymah moorings occupied by September 20 and confirmed Saudi crude crossing Hormuz rising from 0.7 mb/d in August to 2.9 mb/d in September.