Silver Holds Key Support as Fed Rate Hike Odds Recede

Silver (XAG) is currently trading at $61.19, showing a slight downward bias after a modestly lower session. The metal is holding above its key short- and medium-term moving averages but remains below longer-term trend levels. The immediate support level is identified at $60.92, with the asset expected to trade within a range of $60.66 to $61.73 over the next few days.

The reduced odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike have lowered the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver, providing a supportive backdrop for the metal. This shift in monetary policy expectations has influenced investor demand and liquidity without causing a significant move in XAG/USD. The analysis suggests a 56% probability of a downward move in the next two to three days, reflecting cautious momentum.

On the hourly timeframe, silver is trading above the MA-20 and MA-50 but well below the MA-200 on the daily chart. Intraday momentum indicators show a mix of signals, with the MACD Buy signal and Bull/Bear Power indicating strong buyer dominance, while the ADX, Stochastic RSI, and Awesome Oscillator remain neutral. The RSI and CCI both suggest Buy signals without overbought or oversold readings, pointing to positive but cautious momentum in a consolidating market.

Looking ahead, silver is expected to trade within the $60.66 to $61.73 range, with a 44% probability of an upward move and 56% for a downward scenario. The most probable scenario is sideways movement within this corridor unless sustained activity above resistance or below support triggers a directional breakout.