Silver Holds Steady as Rate-Hike Bets Shift Market Dynamics
Silver prices stabilized near $61.61 per troy ounce on 6 October 2026, showing a modest daily gain of 0.90% despite a 6.89% decline over the past month. The metal's resilience comes as fading expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, now at a 20% probability, counterbalance the pressure from a strong US dollar and elevated Treasury yields. The dollar's strength, tied to rising government debt and Eurozone uncertainties, typically makes silver less attractive as it pays no interest and raises costs for international buyers.
The recent weak US jobs report, which added only 29,000 positions in September, has reduced the likelihood of an October rate hike. However, the probability of a December increase remains high at around 70%. Gold, which often influences silver, also climbed higher on the day, trading near $4,172 an ounce as investors reacted to the same rate-hike dynamics.
COMEX silver inventory rose 5.0% on the week, reaching 101.1 million ounces in October 2026, easing concerns about deliverable metal shortages. Pan American Silver (PAAS) and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) are key players in the sector, with PAAS operating as a primary silver producer and WPM holding streaming agreements tied to other miners' output.
Looking ahead, silver's outlook hinges on several factors, including a potential softening of the dollar, falling yields, or stronger industrial demand. Risks include further dollar strength, higher yields, or weaker manufacturing demand, particularly as Chinese markets reopen after the Golden Week holiday.