Silver Price Forecast Trimmed Amid Macro Headwinds

Commerzbank has trimmed its silver price forecast, but the bank maintains a bullish long-term outlook due to a persistent structural deficit in the physical silver market. The adjustment reflects near-term macroeconomic headwinds, including a stronger US dollar and rising real interest rates, which have historically weighed on precious metals.

The global silver market has been undersupplied since 2020, driven by declining mine output and surging industrial consumption. Commerzbank notes that demand from photovoltaic manufacturing and the broader green energy transition is structurally rising, while above-ground inventories are being drawn down. This supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist, creating a price-supportive environment.

The bank's analysts point out that any dip in prices may attract physical buying, further limiting downside. The deficit narrative provides a reason to view pullbacks as potential entry points rather than signals of a structural downturn.