Silver Price Outlook: Treasury Yields Crush ETF Momentum

The recent surge in Treasury yields has led to a decline in silver ETFs, as investors become increasingly wary of holding an asset that generates no interest income. The 10-year Treasury yield recently reached 5.238%, its highest level since June 2007, while markets moved above 72% probability of an October Fed hike.

The pressure on silver is compounded by China's role in the global market. Beijing has maintained a state-trading and licensing regime for silver exports, which restricts eligible exporters. In 2026-2027, only 44 companies were approved to export silver, but this does not necessarily mean an outright export ban.

China is both a major silver consumer and a significant part of the global refining and trading system. Its imports surged to a record in March, reaching about 836 tonnes, driven by demand from investors and its enormous solar industry.