Silver Price Stumbles: Is This Just a Test or a Structural Shift?

The silver price has been under pressure in recent days, plummeting by 3.15% as it fell back towards a major trendline.

This trendline connects major peaks from the late 1970s and the 2011 silver cycle, with the silver-to-M2 ratio reaching a peak around 1980 before declining for decades and then climbing again in 2011.

Tavi Costa's chart, which tracks the silver price relative to US M2 money supply, suggests that the present correction could be testing an important level rather than weakening the metal's structure.

While a stronger US dollar and hawkish Federal Reserve outlook have put pressure on silver, the longer-term fundamentals remain supported by tight supply conditions. The Silver Institute expects the market to remain in deficit for a sixth consecutive year in 2026, with a projected shortfall of 67 million ounces.