Silver prices have dropped over 50% from their peak in January 2026, sparking debate among investors about whether this correction presents a buying opportunity or signals further volatility. On October 26, silver futures on the MCX were trading at ₹1.96 lakh per kg, up slightly from recent lows. The metal had reached a high of ₹3.79 lakh per kg in late January before plummeting to ₹1.94 lakh on October 23. Internationally, silver fell more than 53% from nearly $117 per ounce to just above $54 over the same period.
The decline reflects profit-taking, shifting expectations around US interest rates, dollar movements, and uncertainty over industrial demand. Silver's sensitivity to economic activity and investment sentiment makes its outlook particularly uncertain. Nirpendra Yadav, a senior research analyst at Bonanza, advises against aggressive buying, suggesting investors wait for signs of price stabilization.
Looking ahead, the direction of the dollar, US monetary policy, bond yields, and global manufacturing activity will shape silver's trajectory. While long-term demand from electrification and solar energy could support prices, risks include technological changes and slower economic growth. Yadav recommends gradual accumulation rather than trying to time the market bottom.
Silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw significant inflows in September, but this does not guarantee a price recovery. Niharika Tripathi of Wealthy.in advises investors to assess their current exposure and ensure it aligns with their portfolio goals. Those with excessive silver holdings may consider trimming positions or diversifying into other assets. Tripathi cautions against averaging down without a clear strategy.
As Dhanteras approaches, investors should avoid making decisions based solely on the festive occasion or recent price drops. Those without existing silver exposure could start with small, staggered purchases if it fits their financial plan. However, silver ETFs may not be suitable for short-term goals due to potential volatility. Tripathi emphasizes the importance of considering allocation, time horizon, and risk tolerance before investing.