Smith Warns Counter-Tariffs Will Devastate Alberta Economy

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has warned that Canada's counter-tariffs will have a greater impact on Alberta's economy than the new American tariffs. According to a provincial assessment, the incoming hit from Canadian counter-tariffs is about $4.8 billion of U.S. materials and goods, roughly 11.1 percent of Alberta's American imports.

The outbound hit from the new U.S. 50 percent tariffs is about $1.5 billion, concentrated in furniture, honey, and other non-energy products. Oil, gas, and cattle - the core of Alberta's export machine - were largely left off the latest U.S. list.

Smith has urged Ottawa to get back to the table before the Canadian counter-tariffs take effect on September 8. She argues that a 50 percent Canadian export tax on oil would invite a 50 to 100 percent U.S. response, resulting in at least half a million jobs lost, mostly in Alberta.

The trade map is not symmetrical, with Canada selling most of its goods to the United States. In 2025, 72 percent of Canadian exports went to the U.S., and 46 percent of imports came from the U.S. Energy is the reason for this imbalance, with the U.S. importing $111 billion in energy from Canada in 2025 versus exporting only $26 billion.

Analysts have noted that Venezuela has become a significant supplier to the United States, averaging about 575,000 b/d over an 18-week period. This could be a structural risk to Canada's Gulf Coast share and a reason to build westbound and eastbound pipelines.