South Africa Braces for Lower Wheat Harvest and Higher Imports in 2026-27

South Africa’s 2026-27 winter wheat harvest is projected to decline by 5% year on year, marking the lowest harvest in eight years. The Crop Estimates Committee reported on 29 September 2026 that the total winter crop production is estimated at 2.67 million tons, up 2% from the previous year. However, wheat specifically is expected to drop to 1.81 million tons due to reduced planting areas and dry conditions in the Western Cape.

The decrease in wheat production is likely to drive up imports, with South Africa expected to import about 2.0 million tons in the 2026-27 marketing year, an increase from 1.9 million tons the previous year. This trend is not new; South Africa has been a net importer of wheat since the 2003-04 marketing year, when imports surpassed a million tons annually. The shift from self-sufficiency to reliance on imports began in the late 1990s, following the deregulation of agricultural markets and increased competition in global markets.

Despite challenges in wheat production, South Africa’s overall agricultural sector has thrived post-deregulation, with exports reaching a record $15.1 billion in 2015. However, wheat farming faces unique obstacles, including climatic conditions and higher input costs. The Western Cape remains the largest wheat-producing region, contributing two-thirds of plantings, while other provinces have less suitable conditions for high-quality wheat milling.

Globally, wheat supplies are stable, with the International Grains Council forecasting 820 million tons for the 2026-27 season, slightly down from the previous year but still above the long-term average. The main concern for importing countries like South Africa is potential disruptions in shipping infrastructure due to the Russia-Ukraine war, which could impact prices.