South Africa braces for lowest wheat harvest in eight years

South Africa’s winter wheat harvest is facing significant challenges in the 2026-27 season, with estimates pointing to a 5% year-on-year decline. The Crop Estimates Committee reported on September 29, 2026, that the total winter crop production is expected to reach 2.67 million tons, up 2% from the previous year. However, wheat specifically is projected to drop to 1.81 million tons, the lowest harvest in eight years. This decline is attributed to reduced planting areas and dry conditions in parts of the Western Cape.

The expected shortfall in domestic wheat production is likely to drive up imports. South Africa is anticipated to import about 2.0 million tons of wheat in the 2026-27 marketing year, an increase from 1.9 million tons the previous year. Despite the current challenges, the full impact of the season remains uncertain, as weather conditions could still influence the final yield.

Historically, South Africa has been a net importer of wheat, a trend that began in the 2003-04 marketing year due to increased consumption and reduced domestic planting. The deregulation of agricultural markets in the late 1990s forced farmers to compete globally, leading many to switch to more profitable crops. Today, while the overall agricultural sector has thrived, wheat production has struggled, particularly in the Free State.

Globally, wheat supplies remain robust, with the International Grains Council forecasting a 2026-27 production of 820 million tons. Although this is a 3% drop from the previous year, it is still above the long-term average. The primary concern for importing countries like South Africa is potential disruptions in shipping infrastructure due to the Russia-Ukraine war, which could drive up prices.