South Africa Faces Lowest Wheat Harvest in Eight Years

South Africa is bracing for its lowest wheat harvest in eight years, prompting expectations of increased imports to meet domestic demand. According to Agbiz Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo, the country will likely import around two million tonnes of wheat in the 2026/27 season, up from 1.8 million tonnes last year.

The estimate is based on the Crop Estimates Committee's second winter crop production estimates, which showed that overall winter crop production is estimated at 2.67 million tonnes, a 2% year-on-year increase. However, wheat production is expected to decline by 5%, resulting in a harvest of just 1.81 million tonnes.

Sihlobo attributes the contraction to reduced plantings and dry conditions in parts of the Western Cape. He warns that South Africa's reliance on imported wheat will increase, with Poland accounting for approximately 23% of imports, followed by Russia at 15%, and Lithuania at 14%.