South Africa's energy strategy has taken a dramatic shift in just one year. At Windaba 2025, Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa spoke of a future powered by wind energy. By Windaba 2026, his focus had shifted to gas and battery storage as immediate solutions, with renewables taking a backseat. The minister announced plans for 4,600 megawatts of battery storage and 5,000 megawatts of gas-powered electricity, totaling 9,600 megawatts. This shift aims to address the urgent need for flexible storage and dispatchable power while reducing electricity curtailment risks.
Ramokgopa emphasized the importance of reliable fuel sources for dependable electricity. He outlined a coordinated program for fuel infrastructure and generation, addressing concerns about South Africa's looming gas cliff. Sasol's natural gas supplies from Mozambique, along with domestic sources, are expected to decline sharply by 2026-2028. The 5,000MW gas-to-power (G2P) determination, launched in October 2026, will help bridge this shortfall with interim LNG arrangements and new G2P plants and LNG terminals expected to be operational by 2029-2030.
The new strategy aligns with the Gas Master Plan 2024 and the Industrial Gas Users Association South Africa's Gas Roadmap. These frameworks highlight the need for LNG import infrastructure to achieve financial close, with the 5,000MW G2P allocation providing the necessary offtake agreements. The plan prioritizes coastal LNG import nodes and matches generation with gas corridors, focusing on Richards Bay, Rompco, and the West/South Coast. However, it does not formally link procurement to mid-term indigenous gas field development.
The cost benefits of this shift are significant. During severe load shedding periods, Eskom's diesel-fueled open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) burned up to 3.3 billion litres of diesel annually. Replacing diesel with natural gas could cut fuel costs by approximately 50%. The Zululand Energy Terminal at Richards Bay, with a 25-year terminal operator agreement signed in February 2025, is a key player in this transition. Eskom is the foundation customer for a planned 3,000MW G2P project in the Richards Bay Industrial Development Zone, showcasing the potential for rapid adaptation of existing infrastructure.