South African Grain Farmers Reconsider Crop Mix Amid Rising Input Costs

South African grain farmers are facing a tough decision as they prepare for the new planting season. Rising input costs, large domestic grain supplies, and uncertainty around export markets have created an uncertain environment.

Fertiliser prices have increased by about 140% since 2019, while herbicide prices have risen by approximately 15% and diesel by 83%. This has put pressure on producer margins, making it difficult for farmers to decide what to plant.

Heleen Viljoen, an economist at Grain SA, said that maize producers are considering whether the current surplus could be exported quickly enough. However, if an El Niño event resulted in lower production during the coming season, there may not be a significant price response from farmers due to substantial carry-over stocks.

Viljoen also noted that sunflower is currently showing stronger profitability than maize and soybeans, making it a crop to watch for the upcoming summer growing season. The pressure on domestic markets has also made exports increasingly important, with Jean-Pierre Kotzé of the South African Cereals and Oilseed Trade Association (Sacota) stating that access to efficient infrastructure is critical.