South African wheat harvest hits eight-year low, imports to rise

South Africa’s 2026-27 winter wheat harvest is projected to drop 5% year-on-year to 1.81 million tonnes, the lowest in eight years. The decline is attributed to reduced planting areas and poor yields due to dry conditions in parts of the Western Cape. As a result, the country is expected to boost wheat imports to about 2 million tonnes, according to the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz).

South Africa has consistently been a net wheat importer. Data from the 2025/26 marketing year shows that 1.94 million tonnes were imported from countries like Germany, the US, Latvia, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Romania, Lithuania, Russia, and Poland. Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo noted that while production figures may still change, current observations suggest a challenging season ahead for wheat farmers.

The first 52 weeks of the 2025-26 marketing year saw local farmers deliver about 1.85 million tonnes of wheat to commercial silos, representing 97% of the expected harvest of 1.89 million tonnes, a 2% decline from the previous season. Farmers face multiple challenges, including low commodity prices, rising fuel and fertiliser costs, and rejected applications to increase the domestic dollar-based reference price for wheat.

Despite these challenges, South Africa’s overall 2026-27 winter crop is estimated at 2.67 million tonnes, up 2% year-on-year. Farmers planted 851,510 hectares, a 1% increase from the previous season, with wheat and canola making up the majority of the crops.