South Africa's Farmers Face El Niño-Driven Weather Woes as New Season Looms

The summer grain and oilseed production season in South Africa's eastern regions is set to begin next month, with farmers preparing for the 2026-27 season. Yellow maize and soybeans are the predominant crops planted in these areas, according to Optimal Maize Planting Dates by Grain SA.

Despite excellent soil moisture, which has been a major comfort for the farming community, there are concerns about the rainfall outlook for the year. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) recently issued a Climate Watch report that signaled worries about El Niño's impact on the region. SAWS stated that El Niño is strengthening and will likely continue to do so until the end of the 2026/27 summer season, bringing drier and warmer conditions.

The commodity prices are already reflecting these concerns, with white and yellow maize spot prices increasing by 9% and 10%, respectively, from a month ago. Soybean spot price rose 13% to R8,953 per tonne. The high input costs, mainly fertiliser and fuel, driven by the U.S.-Iran war, are also adding pressure on farmers.