Sovecon Downgrades Russian Grain Export Forecast Amid Ongoing Black Sea Disruptions

Grain consultancy Sovecon has downgraded its forecast for Russia's 2026/27 grain exports to 44.7 million metric tons, citing continued disruptions at Black Sea ports and a lack of progress toward restoring normal navigation.

The downgrade comes after months of tit-for-tat attacks on vessels and ports in the Black Sea by Russia and Ukraine, which have drastically reduced both countries' grain exports.

Almost 90% of Russia's seaborne grain exports were shipped through the Black Sea in the previous export season. Sovecon now expects normal port operations to resume no earlier than 2027, according to its statement.