Spain forecasts 23 percent rise in olive oil production for 2026/27

Spain’s olive oil production is projected to surge by 23 percent in the 2026/27 crop year, reaching 1.6 million metric tons, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. This forecast marks a significant rebound from the previous year’s harvest of roughly 1.298 million tons, which was impacted by adverse weather. The expected increase is attributed to favorable spring conditions, including mild temperatures and abundant rainfall, which supported flowering and fruit set across key growing regions.

The forecast remains preliminary, as high summer temperatures and ongoing weather conditions could influence final production. Andalusia, the world’s largest olive oil-producing region, is expected to contribute nearly four-fifths of Spain’s output, with Jaén alone accounting for 575,000 tons. However, agricultural organizations caution that differences between irrigated and rainfed groves, along with potential rainfall, could affect the final yield.

The previous crop year’s experience highlights the unpredictability of olive oil production, as adverse weather reduced output by about five percent. The current forecast could also trigger a new market-regulation mechanism if opening stocks plus forecast production reach 120 percent of the average level recorded over the past six years. This mechanism would allow olive oil to be temporarily withdrawn from the market to prevent oversupply.

Agriculture Minister Luis Planas emphasized the importance of the forecast for supply and market stability, while Andalusia’s agriculture minister, Ramón Fernández-Pacheco, noted the influence of a very rainy winter on crop development. The government is expected to decide in November whether to activate the market-regulation measure, following a thorough assessment of updated regional crop estimates and final carryover figures.