StanChart Hikes Oil Price Forecasts Amid Persistent Middle East Tensions
The global energy market is facing a persistent deterioration in the Middle East security environment, according to commodity analysts at Standard Chartered. This has led them to hike their oil price forecasts for 2026 and 2027.
In September, crude exports from the region climbed to 15.5 million barrels per day, more than 80% of prewar levels, with Saudi Arabia spearheading the recovery by increasing its exports from 2.45 million bpd in August to roughly 5.4 million bpd in September.
StanChart has raised their average Brent crude forecast for 2026 to $92.00/bbl from $85.50/bbl, while WTI crude is now expected to average $86.00/bbl, up from $80.25/bbl. They have also hiked their 2027 oil price forecasts, with Brent averaging $89.50/bbl from $77.50/bbl, and WTI rising to $89.50/bbl from $77.50/bbl.
The analysts expect only a gradual and imperfect de-escalation process, even if US-Iran negotiations resume shortly, with periodic flare-ups in tension likely to keep a premium embedded in prices. They note that both Brent and WTI remain caught between structural tightness and policy risk, with supply buffers extremely thin, making price moves highly sensitive to further disruption.