The stock market faced a challenging week from October 12th to 16th, with the VN Index dropping from 1,735 points to 1,705 points, a loss of 1.68%. The decline was driven by pressure on large-cap stocks, while bargain hunting demand failed to spark a significant recovery. Trading value on the HoSE fell by 29.2% compared to the previous session, highlighting cautious buyer behavior. Foreign investors continued to sell, with net sales of approximately 3,000 billion VND on the HoSE and over 105 billion VND on the HNX, emphasizing the importance of domestic capital in stabilizing the market.
Looking ahead to the week of October 19th to 23rd, the 1,700-point level remains a critical support zone. Securities firms are cautious, awaiting a breakout from the short-term downtrend and updated corporate earnings results before increasing portfolio weightings. Two scenarios are possible: if the VN Index holds above 1,700 points with improved liquidity, the market could consolidate its rebound. Conversely, a drop below this level amid increased selling pressure could lead to a prolonged correction.
The gold market also faced pressure, closing the past week in a consolidation phase. Spot prices ended around $4,163-$4,168 per ounce, while the December contract stood at $4,181 per ounce, down approximately 0.7% from the previous week. High yields, driven by US inflation data, are limiting gold's appeal. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than forecast, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 6.3%, raising concerns about continued cost pressures. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5.106%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Investors will be monitoring US housing data, initial jobless claims, and the preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (Flash PMI) during the upcoming week. Positive data could maintain pressure on gold, while cooling economic data might provide a chance for recovery. The $4,217-$4,226/ounce range is a key threshold for gold to consolidate its rebound, with $4,066/ounce serving as a significant support level. Central bank demand for physical gold is expected to provide some support, but it may not be enough to overcome interest rate pressures.