The report highlights that while NH3 prices have surged due to tight supplies, there are signs that the upward momentum may slow, though prices are not expected to drop significantly.
Globally, supply issues persist, with Russia's exports severely reduced due to the Ukraine conflict, European production down by 75% due to gas supply problems, and Trinidad facing unreliable gas inputs. Nutrien's recent decision to halt nitrogen production in Trinidad has further tightened supplies, contributing to higher prices. The report notes that while prices could continue to rise, the likelihood of $50-$60 monthly jumps from current levels is diminishing.
In North America, the fall application season is expected to be robust, driven by high nitrogen demand and the anticipation of 93 million acres of corn planting in 2026. Farmers are likely to stick with fall NH3 application programs, despite the high costs, due to the certainty it provides. The report also points out that NH3 remains the cheapest nitrogen option, even as other sources like urea and UAN see price increases.
The newsletter cautions that while the bullish outlook remains, the market is showing signs of stabilization. The global NH3 market continues to struggle with tight supplies, which is expected to support higher prices in the near term.