Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Global Energy System Shows Resilience Despite Significant Disruptions

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has had a significant impact on global oil and gas supplies, but surprisingly, the world's energy system has not buckled yet. According to McKinsey, around 20% of global oil and LNG normally transits through the Strait, and at its peak, the disruption affected about 14% of global combined oil and gas supply, more than twice the relative size of the 1970s oil shocks.

The crisis has led to a reduction in oil flows through the Strait from around 21.3 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 7.8 million barrels per day. This gap was largely addressed by bypass pipelines and additional production, which accounted for around 35% of the supply gap.

Inventories and reduced oil consumption also played a crucial role in absorbing the shock, contributing around 20% and 45%, respectively, to addressing the supply gap. China's seaborne crude and refined-product imports fell by more than 40%, while the US increased exports by 2.2 million barrels per day, or 20%. However, McKinsey warns that existing shock absorbers have limits, with global inventories depleted and refining capacity becoming a major vulnerability.