Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Send Oil Prices Soaring

Oil prices are expected to remain firm due to ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, according to separate analyses by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Rabobank International. The EIA forecasts Brent crude to average around $85 a barrel in Q3CY26, significantly higher than its previous estimate, due to global inventory drawdowns.

Rabobank has a more bullish outlook, raising its Brent forecast to $90 a barrel for both the third and fourth quarters of 2026. The Dutch multinational financial services company expects Brent to remain volatile in the months ahead, with $70-$75 a bbl acting as the lower-end support zone and $95-$100 forming the upper end of the range.

A short-term agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping is unlikely given the limited common ground between the US and Iran. Analysts believe that prices will ease only when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovers and 'shut-in' oil production resumes.