As protests and riots erupt across France, driven by rising living costs and anger over public services, the focus turns to the global impact of a sulphur price shock on food prices. The disruption in sulphur supply, exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts and export restrictions, has led to a significant increase in sulphur prices, from $150-180 a tonne in 2025 to around $900 by May 2026. This has ripple effects on fertilizer production, agricultural yields, and ultimately, the cost of food.
The analysis reveals that while French families may barely notice the price increase in bread, a baguette costs €1.25, the impact is far more severe in poorer countries. For instance, a median family in Bangladesh would pay four times as much as a share of their household budget compared to a French family under a modest increase in food prices. The THB Food Price Burden Index, introduced in this analysis, highlights the disparity in food price burdens across 103 countries, with Nigeria, Myanmar, and Bangladesh facing the highest burdens.
The sulphur shortage has led to acute fertilizer shortages in countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India, affecting crop yields and agricultural production. Farmers in import-dependent countries are hit first, with production shortages reported in various regions. The index shows that poverty is associated with a greater proportion of spending on food, exacerbating the burden of food price shocks in lower-income countries.
In France, a 10% rise in wheat prices would add about 0.6% to the price of a baguette, a negligible increase compared to the significant impact on households in countries like Malawi, where the median person would pay an extra $44 a year, equivalent to about five weeks of work. The analysis underscores the global interconnectedness of food prices and the disproportionate impact of supply disruptions on vulnerable populations.