Super El Nino Triggers Sugar Shortages Worldwide
The current El Nino weather pattern is causing widespread problems for sugar crops and other commodities around the world. This year's El Nino has been dubbed a 'Super El Nino,' and it's being felt globally with record-breaking water temperatures.
In 2015-2016, El Nino led to drought in Asia, particularly Thailand and India, which damaged or threatened cane production. Abnormal rainfall also affected harvesting and logistics in other regions, contributing to tighter world sugar supplies and higher prices. Nearby sugar was around 17.5-18 cents per pound as of September 17, 2026, after rising roughly 30% from earlier 2026 lows.
The global market may shift from a surplus in 2025/26 to a deficit of roughly 200,000-260,000 metric tons in 2026/27. Lower production forecasts for India and Thailand, possible El Nino-related crop damage, heavy Brazilian rains, and stronger oil prices encouraging Brazilian mills to produce ethanol instead of sugar are all supportive.
Region-by-region, the effects of El Nino on sugar crops include:
- India: Often below-normal monsoon rainfall, causing drought stress and lower sugarcane yields.
- Thailand: Frequently drier conditions, reduced cane growth, and lower crushing volumes.
- Australia: Often hotter and drier conditions in important cane-growing areas, reducing yields where irrigation is limited.
- Indonesia and the Philippines: Drought can reduce sugarcane growth, especially during strong El Nino events.
- Brazil: Excess rain can delay harvesting and lower cane quality, while drought can reduce cane growth and sucrose content.
- Central and Western Pacific Islands: Drought and heat can damage cane crops and reduce water availability.
- United States and parts of Europe: Effects are mixed and generally less directly linked to global sugar shortages.