Surprises Will Continue to Rock Global Markets Amid Geopolitics Tensions
Surprises will continue to shake global markets as geopolitics and trade tensions persist. The relationship between China and the US is a key area of concern, with both sides seeking to avoid escalation in disputes. However, surprises are expected from elsewhere, particularly in Ukraine and the US-Iran war.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has resulted in significant damage to Russia's infrastructure and economy, leading to a desperate search for new ways to harm Ukraine's industrial and electricity infrastructure. This could have far-reaching consequences for global oil supplies and prices.
In contrast, there may be mild upside surprises in economic performance in countries such as China, India, and Thailand. China's property market is showing early signs of recovery, while India's economy has surprised positively for two consecutive quarters. Thailand's new team of technocrats is working to reshape policies and speed up infrastructure projects.
The global economy is also likely to experience price shocks due to the ongoing oil market volatility. Oil prices have recently eased, but a revival of Chinese oil demand could cause prices to spike in the future.