TAPI Pipeline Ambitions Jeopardized by Regional Rivalries and Security Concerns
The Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India (TAPI) pipeline project has made progress in recent months, but regional rivalries and security concerns threaten to jeopardize its ambitions.
In August, Turkmenistan's state-owned Turkmengaz signed a memorandum of understanding with Afghanistan's state-owned Afghan Gas on gas purchases under the TAPI project. The deal covers the 153-kilometer Serhetabat, Herat section of the pipeline and aims to determine gas prices, demand levels, and distribution arrangements.
Afghan Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar Akhund asked Turkmenistan's support in developing a gas distribution network in Herat and creating local employment through the project. However, uncertainty remains over the extension of TAPI into Pakistan and India, its two largest South Asian markets.
The TAPI pipeline was originally envisioned as a vehicle for regional cooperation and stability but could become a source of strategic leverage among Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India if tensions escalate. The project involves construction of a 1,800-kilometer pipeline running from Turkmenistan's Galkynysh gas field through Afghanistan and Pakistan to Fazilka, India, with an estimated capacity to transport 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually.
New Delhi is wary of depending on Pakistan for gas supplies delivered through TAPI, as such dependence could give Islamabad leverage during a future bilateral crisis. India fears that Pakistan could disrupt gas supplies during a conflict.