Tariff Uncertainty Drives US Metals Stockpiling

The Washington government's critical-minerals policy may be having an unexpected effect on the market. According to Goldman Sachs commodity strategist Lina Thomas, the threat of tariffs is already influencing the supply chain for copper and other critical metals.

Thomas argues that policy ambiguity has created a private-sector stockpiling programme, attracting critical metals into the United States without immediate government purchases. This trend could continue even if no tariffs are implemented, as mine development takes more than a decade to produce new supplies.

The global inventories of copper and other metals may be overstating their practical availability, as a larger share remains concentrated inside the US. Softening investor demand has temporarily reduced pressure on prices, but another inflow could lead to outsized price moves in a market with tighter ex-US liquidity.