TD Report Cuts West Coast Pipeline Growth Projections

A new oil pipeline to the West Coast would give Canada and Alberta's economies a boost, but not as much as forecasted by governments, according to a report from TD Economics.

The government predicts a 0.6-per-cent increase in the national economy by the 2040s and 3.5 per cent in Alberta's GDP, but economists Marc Ercolao and Likeleli Seitlheko say these figures are 'proposal-stage estimates' that may be overly optimistic.

Using more conservative assumptions, they estimate a 0.3-per-cent increase nationally and two per cent provincially, which they call a 'meaningful contribution to growth', especially with improving market access and export diversification.

The pipeline would be developed by Crown-owned Trans Mountain Corp., with an estimated cost of $35 billion to $44 billion, mostly funded by the federal and provincial governments. It would increase Canada's oil exports by 20 per cent and nearly double what currently goes overseas on tankers to Asia.