Tehran Turns North: Iran's Caspian Gambit Hits Oil Export Hurdles

Tehran is looking to the Caspian Sea as an alternative route for its oil exports, disrupted by war in southern trade routes. While more cargo moving across the Caspian could help keep supplies coming in, it's unclear if this new route can replace the crucial oil exports.

Rising freight totals do not necessarily indicate a practical alternative for exporting oil, as they don't show what is being shipped, where it is going, or what trade it replaces. Grain and industrial goods can ease shortages, but crude needs its own export infrastructure and buyers.

Iran's oil swaps at Neka demonstrate both the potential of the northern route and its limitations. The available evidence suggests that Tehran cannot rely solely on the Caspian for a way around Hormuz.