Toluene Prices Rise Then Fall Amid Cost-Driven Volatility
Toluene prices experienced an initial surge followed by a decline in September, ultimately closing higher overall. The domestic market saw prices rise to 8,166.67 RMB/ton on September 20 from 7,440 RMB/ton on September 1, representing a cumulative monthly increase of 9.77%. International crude oil prices drove the initial gains, with concerns over tightening supplies pushing up oil prices and subsequently supporting toluene costs.
However, as expectations of loose crude oil supply persisted in the near term, oil prices came under downward pressure, weakening cost support for toluene. Domestic toluene supply continued to recover, further easing supply tightness, while downstream demand showed no signs of a near-term rebound.
The market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with price trends largely driven by fluctuations in international crude oil prices and the pace of refinery shipment adjustments. The lack of demand-side support exacerbated the magnitude of the decline in toluene prices, which fell from their highs as buyers postponed restocking.