President Donald Trump has attributed his party's losses in the 2026 midterm elections to high gas prices, despite acknowledging that the ongoing Iran war is a key factor driving those prices. In interviews, Trump insisted that the war was necessary to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, but he acknowledged that the resulting high gas prices hurt his party's chances. The average price of gas in the U.S. was $4.12 on November 4, 2026, up from $3.05 a year earlier.
Analysts argue that the only way to significantly lower gas prices is to end the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil shipments. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, warned in April 2026 that if the Strait remained closed, Americans would start changing their travel plans and remember the issue at the polls. With Democrats set to take control of Congress in January 2027, they have pledged to lower costs for Americans, including gas prices.
Trump's options to lower gas prices are limited unless he negotiates an end to the war. Democrats could cut off funding for the war, but they would need 67 votes in the Senate to override a potential veto from Trump. Vice President JD Vance also acknowledged that the war cost Republicans in the elections, suggesting it was a factor in their losses. Trump, however, remains firm on his stance, stating that the war will end 'whenever I want it to' but emphasizing the importance of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
Democratic leaders, including Sen. Ruben Gallego, have vowed to address high gas prices and other costs immediately after taking office. They also plan to invest in affordable child care, health care, and housing, as well as rein in AI and Big Tech data centers. The outcome of the Iran war and any new attacks or truces around the Strait of Hormuz will likely dictate where gas prices head as the holiday season approaches.