Trump Blames Ukraine for Diesel Shortage, but Experts Say Iran War is Main Culprit

US President Donald Trump has urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop targeting Russian diesel refineries, citing a resulting global diesel shortage. However, analysts argue that the impact of Ukraine's strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure is minor compared to the damage caused by the US war with Iran.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil and gas facilities, which has reduced Moscow's oil output. As a result, Russia's fuel oil exports have fallen significantly, down 81% from their five-year average in August. The country supplies around 150,000 barrels of diesel per day globally.

Trump claimed that Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries are the primary cause of the global diesel shortage, but experts disagree. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, said the real impact is on Russian civilians, who have been left without fuel due to Ukrainian strikes.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that combined diesel exports from Russia and the Gulf in August were 1.6 million barrels a day lower than in February. The Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for around one-fifth of global oil supply, remains blocked due to the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran.

US diesel prices have risen sharply, with the national average reaching $6.20 per gallon on Sunday, a 65% increase since the US and Israel struck Iran in February. The IEA points out that damage to refineries in both Russia and the Middle East has contributed significantly to the global energy supply crisis.

Beauchamp noted that a cessation of Ukrainian attacks might bring diesel prices down slightly, but the main driver of the shortage remains the US's war with Iran. Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London, agreed that Ukraine's refinery campaign is an important additional squeeze on global energy supplies.