Trump Blocks Iranian Regime's Gas Pump Gambit
The Iranian regime's strategy in this war was straightforward: choke the Strait of Hormuz and force Washington to lose its nerve before the midterms. With Brent crude spiking past $107 a barrel, Tehran bet that pain at the pump would break America. However, President Donald Trump deserves credit for thwarting this plan.
Crude exports from the Persian Gulf have returned to pre-war levels, with JPMorgan estimating an average of 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of the pre-war rate. Goldman Sachs reports a similar figure, with the region exporting 19 million barrels per day over the past week. Meanwhile, Brent crude has dropped to around $103, and West Texas crude is trading at approximately $90.
The Gulf states have effectively bypassed the Strait of Hormuz by routing oil through alternative pipelines. In September, only 60% of Gulf crude crossed the strait, while 23% went through a UAE pipeline to the Gulf of Oman, and 17% flowed through a Saudi pipeline to the Red Sea.
The Iranian regime is now isolated, with its oil exports halted due to the American naval blockade. In September, satellite data showed no Iranian crude leaving by sea at all, a direct result of the blockade imposed in July. Iran's offer to reopen the Strait within seven days came with a price: the release of frozen funds, an end to sanctions, and an end to the blockade. The President refused this proposal.
The administration has successfully paired American naval power with the reach of the American banking system, blockading Iranian ports while making it difficult for banks to move money for the Revolutionary Guard. This has led to a remarkable shift in cooperation between Arab states and Israel, as seen in the Abraham Accords. The war has normalized diplomatic relations between these countries.
Inside Iran, the regime is losing control, with outbreaks of violence suggesting a destabilization campaign that the security services cannot contain. The regime's enforcers are now afraid, indicating a significant shift in power dynamics.