Trump Tariff Decision Triggers Record Copper Imports

A surge of refined copper imports has flooded into the US in July, driven by expectations of President Donald Trump's tariff decision on the metal. According to IHS Markit shipping data, approximately 200,000 tons of refined copper arrived in the US last month, a record high and the highest monthly total since 2014.

The influx of copper is largely attributed to traders seeking to capitalize on the arbitrage spread between COMEX copper futures and London Metal Exchange (LME) prices. The average spread between front-month COMEX copper and LME cash contracts exceeded $350 per ton in July, covering transoceanic shipping costs and attracting continued flows of overseas metal to US ports.

As a result, official COMEX copper inventories have grown more than 40% this year to record highs, with total copper stockpiled across the US now exceeding 1 million tons. This has come at the expense of tightening supply elsewhere, particularly in London, where LME inventories have fallen sharply.

The tariff decision is expected to significantly impact trade flows, with proponents arguing that tariffs would incentivize investment in domestic US mining and smelting operations, bolstering America's self-sufficiency in copper. Opponents warn that tariffs would raise costs for manufacturers reliant on imported copper, undermining the international competitiveness of US finished goods.