Trump's Strategy Thwarts Iran's Strait of Hormuz Gambit

Iran's strategy during the current conflict revolved around controlling the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to disrupt global oil supply and drive up gas prices in the U.S. In September, Brent crude surged past $107 per barrel, and Iranian-aligned militias attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, shutting it down for over a week. Tehran hoped that economic pressure would force the U.S. to back down before the midterms.

The strategy failed, and President Donald Trump has been credited with outmaneuvering Iran. Crude exports from the Persian Gulf have returned to pre-war levels, with JPMorgan reporting a 10-day average of 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of pre-war volumes. Brent crude has since dropped to around $103, while West Texas crude trades at approximately $90.

Before the war, 83% of Gulf crude passed through the Strait of Hormuz. However, alternative routes like the UAE pipeline to the Gulf of Oman and the Saudi pipeline to the Red Sea allowed oil to bypass the strait, weakening Iran's leverage. Meanwhile, Iran's own oil exports have ground to a halt, with satellite data showing no crude leaving by sea in September, thanks to a U.S. naval blockade reinstated in July.

Last week, Iran offered to reopen the strait within seven days, demanding the release of frozen funds, an end to sanctions, and the lifting of the blockade. Trump rejected the proposal, noting that a regime in a strong position would not beg for financial relief. The article contrasts this administration's approach with previous ones, highlighting the use of naval power and financial sanctions to isolate Iran.

The war has also led to unprecedented cooperation between Arab allies and Israel, as shared threats from Iran have fostered practical collaboration. Internally, Iran's regime faces growing instability, with outbreaks of violence indicating weakening control. Despite these developments, the article warns that the war is far from over, with ongoing attacks in the Red Sea and reduced exports of refined fuels.