TSX Composite Index Poised for Positive Open Amid Commodity Strength

The S&P/TSX Composite Index is expected to open higher, driven by gains in the basic materials and technology sectors. Despite this positive start, the index remains below its 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a key resistance level that underscores ongoing technical weakness. Immediate support is seen near 35,300, a critical level for maintaining the current technical structure. Sustained trading above this level could stabilize market sentiment and support a recovery towards the recent high near 35,800.

Global markets are focusing on monetary policy, particularly the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision and its potential impact on future easing. U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar remain crucial cross-asset signals, influencing equities, precious metals, and other rate-sensitive assets. The Canadian dollar’s movement is also in focus, as it affects commodity revenues and earnings for Canadian exporters.

Commodities are showing mixed movements: crude oil is below $91 a barrel, gold has climbed above $4,150 an ounce, silver has risen above $61 an ounce, and copper futures are above $6.5 per pound. These shifts are driven by factors such as geopolitical risks, weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data, and reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further.

The Canadian market’s performance will be influenced by energy and materials stocks, which are closely tied to commodity prices. Financials will remain sensitive to interest-rate expectations and domestic economic conditions. As the fourth quarter begins, investors will watch for portfolio repositioning and renewed sector allocation.