TTF Natural Gas Prices Stay Elevated Amid Gulf Disruptions and US-Iran Uncertainty
Rabobank's Florence Schmit has highlighted that TTF Natural Gas prices remain supported by low European storage and disrupted Gulf LNG flows. The absence of meaningful U.S.-Iran progress keeps a structural risk premium in prices, with TTF averaging €60/MWh in Q4 2026.
The risk premium is due to the lack of a stable framework that restores Qatari LNG exports on a sustained basis. As long as there are no meaningful negotiations, there will be no surge in LNG flows out of the Gulf.
Europe's natural gas prices remain elevated due to the stop-start pattern of cargoes and low storage levels. A credible political agreement is needed to remove the risk premium from TTF.
In the base case scenario for 2027, Rabobank forecasts TTF to average €42/MWh. However, an infrastructure-damage scenario could push prices into a €50-60/MWh range through much of next year.