Turkey Inflation Forecast Revised Upwards to 28 Percent Amid War-Driven Price Increases

The Central Bank of Turkey has revised its end-2026 inflation forecast upwards to 28 percent, citing war-driven increases in energy costs and higher food prices.

This increase is due in part to stronger-than-expected rises in diesel, natural gas, and other commodity prices, as well as a higher assumption for food inflation.

The bank's third Inflation Report of the year, published on August 13, attributed these changes to energy prices remaining above pre-war levels after regional tensions escalated again in July.

Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan stated that disinflation is continuing despite a loss of momentum, but noted that oil and natural gas prices remain among the main upside risks.