Turkey's Wheat Exports Stalled by Uncompetitive Prices

Turkey's grain market is experiencing contrasting supply dynamics as the country enters August. A large wheat harvest has created export potential, but uncompetitive offer prices are deterring buyers. The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) allowed wheat exports to resume on July 29, but offers for Turkish wheat with 12.5% protein remained too high at $340+ USD/т FOB in early August.

The country's 2026 wheat crop is estimated at up to 25 MMT, well above the USDA forecast of 22.5 MMT. However, suppliers are mainly testing potential demand, and no firm sellers were reported. Turkish wheat may find demand in neighboring Iraq or Italy if it becomes competitively priced.

Turkey's domestic market is facing a shortage of wheat bran, which is further complicated by the decline in available suppliers. Ukraine and Russia have effectively stopped supplying the product, leaving Turkish buyers dependent on shipments from Africa and Italy.