U.S. Wheat Price Outlook Bolstered by Higher Global Supplies

The U.S. wheat price outlook has strengthened for the 2026/27 marketing year due to higher global supplies and prices. The season-average farm price in the United States increased by $0.20 to $6.40 per bushel, supported by National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) prices, firmer futures and cash expectations, and higher corn prices.

The export projections for U.S. wheat showed notable shifts among classes. White wheat exports were raised by 20 million bushels, while Hard Red Winter and Hard Red Spring exports were reduced by 15 million and 5 million bushels, respectively. These adjustments are based on sales and shipments reported to date and the price competitiveness of each wheat class against key international suppliers.

Globally, wheat supplies rose 3.5 million tonnes to 1,103.0 million, mainly due to stronger production estimates in major exporting countries. Australia's crop was raised by 3.0 million tonnes to 31.0 million amid favorable conditions, while Canada increased by 1.0 million tonnes to 36.0 million.

Global consumption increased modestly, driven by higher feed and residual use, but world trade declined by 0.9 million tonnes due to weaker shipments from Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Egypt. Black Sea logistics disruptions weighed on Russian and Ukrainian exports.