UAE Edges Closer to Overtaking Saudi as Top Oil Exporter in Region

The ongoing conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran has caused significant disruptions to oil exports from the kingdom. According to Rystad Energy, an extended shutdown of the East-West pipeline could remove around 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of Saudi exports from the market.

Saudi Arabia was already struggling to get oil to market before the latest attack, with its crude supply falling by 2.3 million bpd in August to 6 million bpd, its lowest in more than three decades, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The UAE has largely restored its oil production to pre-war levels of around 3.6 million bpd and is building a second pipeline alongside its existing route to Fujairah, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

However, experts say that the shift in market share from Saudi Arabia to the UAE will be short-lived, as the kingdom's production capacity far outweighs its smaller neighbor. Saudi Arabia can sustain oil output at more than 12 million barrels per day, while the UAE can produce a maximum of 4.28 million barrels and is aiming to increase this to 5 million in 2027.